PaREGEn Impact assessment
An overview of the contribution of the PaREGEn project developments to environmentally and socially important impacts is given. A full public report is presented in: D6.6 Impact assessment report.
The Contribution of the PaREGEn Project to Environmentally and Socially Important Impacts
During the proposal stage for the PaREGEn project the key projected outputs of the project (and how they were to be achieved) were listed in relation to the specific impacts called for in the Horizon 2020 Green Vehicles Work Programme (GV-02-2016). The specific impacts were:
- A contribution to climate
action and sustainable development by
- delivering significant reductions in CO2 emissions (thus addressing the global warming challenge)
- and by improving noxious emissions (thus allowing better air quality in European cities).
These impacts were proposed to be achieved by meeting the following targets:
- For a new generation of non-hybrid
engines, having demonstration vehicles to prove via independent testing
- a reduction of WLTP CO2 emissions of 15% (based on the gasoline engines target)
- and real driving emissions compliance to the upcoming Euro 6 RDE limits (subsequently denoted Euro 6c and Euro 6d) with particle number emissions measured with a 10nm size threshold.
- And by contributing to the establishment of a future EU Super Low Emission Vehicles standard.
Delivering Significant Reductions of CO2 Emissions
During the PaREGEn project, two new engines, including a variety of new component hardware, together with their exhaust aftertreatment and control technologies were developed on the engine test bed and then demonstrated in two vehicles (see Figures below). The independent tracking and evaluation of these developments and demonstrations has shown the potential of the technologies to achieve the project’s CO2 emissions reductions targets (see Figures and deliverable reports D5.1, D5.2 and D5.3).
Consequently, it has been possible to estimate the likely impact of these engine technologies on the European vehicle parc emissions over the coming years, based on a variety of assumptions related to the market introduction and uptake of these innovations (see deliverable D5.4). Within the estimations, it is assumed that the European passenger car vehicle parc will produce about 840MtCO2 in 2020, and that this will reduce over time through technical and market developments (not immediately related to the activities of the PaREGEn project), to about 755MtCO2 in 2030 and 525MtCO2 in 2050.
The two demonstrator vehicles chosen within the PaREGEn project (the Mercedes E-Class and Jaguar XE) represent only a small part of the European vehicle fleet today (about 4%). However, it can be envisaged that the engine technology demonstrated within PaREGEn could be applied over time to other vehicles manufactured by the two OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers), which would then represent a market share, of up to 22%, depending on the size of the car (from small to large) or around 16% in total for the passenger car market. Further, it is to be expected that other OEMs, perhaps with a delay, would also adopt the technology for their non-hybrid engines, given the proven fuel economy benefits. Finally, since the technology is inherently also applicable to engines used in hybridized powertrains, a fourth scenario can be envisaged where all gasoline passenger car engines adopt the PaREGEn technologies during the time period up to and beyond 2030. Hence, given knowledge about the turnover rates within the vehicle parc, the estimates of the CO2 impact of the PaREGEn project on the vehicle fleet emission can be made.
Should just the two OEMs involved in the project adopt the PaREGEn technologies for all of their gasoline engined non-hybrid vehicles, it is estimated that about 0.4MtCO2 emissions would be reduced from the European vehicle parc in the year 2030. Alternatively, should all manufacturers adopt the technology benefits for all their gasoline engined vehicles, then a peak reduction of about 10MtCO2 is expected in the year 2040. This would represent about a 2% reduction in the complete European passenger car vehicle parc CO2 emissions in that year. Looking ahead, the vehicle parc estimates suggest a reducing proportion of internally combustion engined passenger cars on the road after 2040. However, should drop-in, net zero carbon fuels become available, then the efficiency gains demonstrated within the PaREGEn project could be retained within the vehicle parc, leading to net negative CO2 emissions from the PaREGEn technology relative to 2020, a further significant contribution of the project towards long-term GHG emission goals.
Improving Noxious Emissions
In a similar manner to the considerations for CO2, so the impact of the PaREGEn project in relation to other emissions, especially particle (number) emissions, can be made. In the first instance, during independent evaluation the two demonstrated vehicles showed that the achievement of the improved vehicle fuel economy (relative to the 2015 baseline) is possible whilst maintaining the most stringent current noxious emissions regulations for passenger cars in Europe (i.e. Euro 6(d), which also represents and reduction, in real driving emission terms, compared to the 2015 baseline). This is illustrated, by way of example, in Figure 8 (see deliverable D5.3). More specifically, control of the particle number emissions, measured down to 10nm in size, was confirmed with the two demonstrator vehicles. This is represented in Figure 9, illustrating that a very significant reduction in particle numbers was possible, especially as a consequence of the gasoline particle filter developments, whilst still showing the potential to meet the fuel economy and other emissions targets.
Further, if the particle number emissions reductions compared to the 2015 baseline (at the current 23nm size limit) are then applied to the future European vehicle parc, as has been done for CO2 above (see deliverable report D5.4), then between a 1 to 2% reduction in particle number emissions for the parc can be envisaged by 2030. This reduction then raises rapidly, leading to a reduction of between 30% (for all non-hybrid powertrain vehicles) to 70% in the year 2050 (should the technology be applied to all gasoline engined vehicles). At these levels of particle emissions reduction from the vehicle powertrain, then other source of such emissions, for example from the vehicle brakes or tyres, become significant for estimating the overall emissions from the European vehicle parc. In addition, as noted above, “unregulated” emissions for the two demonstrator vehicles were measured in real time over selected test cycles. This allowed correlation factors for these emissions between different testing cycles to be estimated and used as input into the discussion for possible future EU Super Low Emission Vehicles regulation.